JobsOutlook: UK hiring intentions hold despite Gulf-related slide in employer confidence - REC

Employers still plan to hire but are becoming less confident about the decision-making environment, according to the Recruitment and Employment Confederation’s (REC) latest JobsOutlook survey of 700 firms.

Hiring outlook in both permanent and temporary hiring across the short and medium-term stayed in positive territory in the February 2026 to April 2026 period, though it eased a little from the previous quarter.

But today’s data also shows confidence in decision making about the economy, hiring and investment among employers has begun to weaken. After a period of improvement, this adds to signs of weaker demand, with businesses more inclined to wait out the current international uncertainty than invest right now.

Neil Carberry, REC Chief Executive, said:

“Today’s data suggest the strengthening in employers’ confidence on the economy, hiring and investment we saw earlier in the year is easing. But UK businesses are nothing if not resilient. They are retaining sufficient positivity to maintain some momentum in the labour market through the summer. We are also seeing long overdue improvements in hiring sentiment in the public sector, but most pessimism around all short- and medium-term hiring is now coming from small businesses who will be feeling the squeeze of government-imposed cost rises most.

“Resolving the Gulf crisis and delivering targeted domestic support, such as the temporary cut in VAT from 20% to 5%, would give sentiment a kickstart. There is a quick win out there that would not cost the government anything - take the current approach to Guaranteed Hours for workers off the table. It is time to put pace on the recovery of the labour market to fire up momentum and this is a solid approach to boost employer sentiment and get more people into jobs.”

REC measures employers’ confidence in hiring intentions and, separately, their confidence in decision making. Today’s data shows that confidence in taking hiring and investment decisions declined, which led to a decrease in hiring intention to some extent as the outlook eased from the previous quarter.

Employers’ perceptions of how the UK economy is performing were down. It dropped by 12 percentage points this quarter (February 2026–April 2026), totalling net: -43%, when compared to last quarter (December 2025–February 2026). This drop in sentiment was not evenly spread with sentiment in February the highest at net: -16%. March and April 2026 were more markedly subdued at net: -56%.

Similarly, confidence in decision making on hiring and investment also decreased by eight percentage points to net: -12% this quarter (February 2026–April 2026) when compared to the previous quarter (December 2025–February 2026). The decline in sentiment occurred primarily between February, which was net: +9%, and March, which was net: -21% with April being the lowest of the three months at net: -24%.

Detailed overview of hiring intentions by UK employers

Short-term outlook for permanent recruitment: Sentiment for short-term permanent hiring (February–April 2026) stood at net: +5%, which is two percentage points lower than the last quarter (December 2025–February 2026). Sentiment across the period dipped in March to net: +1%, from net: +6% in February, but it recovered by April, reaching net: +7%.

Medium-term outlook for permanent recruitment (4-12 months): It rose by two percentage points to net: +7% between February–April 2026. Sentiment rose to net: +8% in March and net: +10% in April after a significant decline in February to net: +1%.

Short-term temporary hiring: Overall sentiment for February–April 2026 stood at net: +2%, which is down four percentage points from last quarter (December 2025–February 2026). Sentiment only rose in April which recorded sentiment at (net: +3%), with February and March at net: +1%. 

Medium-term temporary hiring (four-12 months): Sentiment has stagnated since last quarter sitting at net: +5%. Hiring outlook dipped in March to net: +3% but bounced back in April to net: +9%.

Notes to editors

1.     JobsOutlook is produced by the REC in partnership with Whitestone Insights. Till October 2024 it was in collaboration with Savanta ComRes, but from November 2024, to improve the sample size and the robustness of the data REC is partnered with Whitestone Insights. 706 UK employers participated via online survey in the JobsOutlook survey, which was conducted between 12 February and 20 April 2026. Data were weighted to be representative of UK adults in employment by region, broad industry sector and public/private split. Whitestone Insights is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Change in collaborator and the methodology led to minor adjustments in the quarterly data. The adjustments are within the margin of error.

2.     Short-term hiring intentions are for the next three months. Medium-term hiring intentions are for the next four to 12 months.