Does AI increase your employees being a flight risk?

This is a guest blog written by REC Business Partner, Wotter

Why are employees predicted to quit in the next six months? The conventional wisdom often points toward Financial Wellbeing or Progression as the primary levers for retention. However, advanced machine learning models analysing real-world employee data suggest a more nuanced and impactful retention strategy, particularly over a focused six-month horizon.

Wotter.ai, an employee retention platform, has analysed over one million data points from real UK employees over the past 12 months. Leveraging this extensive dataset, the platform has developed Google-backed (they even made a video about it) machine learning models designed to accurately predict employee flight risk. These models are currently showing an 86% accuracy when identifying flight risks within companies using the platform, providing a reliable predictive basis for strategic HR interventions. You can find more information on the platform at wotter.ai.

The Predictive Power of Engagement Drivers

Using its flight risk prediction model, wotter.ai ran simulations to quantify the impact of improving various engagement drivers on expected employee turnover. The core of the simulation employs a Diminishing Returns logic, reflecting real-world dynamics: improving the experience for an already struggling (high-risk) employee yields a greater retention impact than trying to significantly enhance the experience of an already highly engaged (low-risk) employee. The model therefore simulates 'smart' improvements that target and have the largest effect on the specific demographic most likely to leave.

The simulations focused on three strategic areas, calculating the resulting reduction in expected leavers.

Key Simulation Results: Where to Focus Investment

The Baseline: Hygiene Factors

A combined, realistic improvement in both Financial Wellbeing and Progression clarity resulted in a 4.4% decrease in expected leavers. While crucial for employee satisfaction and often considered the "table stakes" of employment, improving these factors, in isolation, appears to offer a relatively low immediate return on investment for retention compared to other drivers. This data suggests that while employees expect competitive pay and clear career paths, exceeding these expectations is not the most powerful lever for a rapid reduction in flight risk.

The Mid-Tier: Management Factor

Simulating a stronger focus on Recognition—specifically, training managers to consistently vocalise appreciation for good work—demonstrated a more substantial impact, predicting a 7.1% decrease in expected leavers. This factor highlights the vital role of management capability. Managerial skill in providing regular, meaningful recognition is a low-cost intervention that translates into a demonstrably higher retention yield.

The Retention Game Changer: Culture Factor

The most significant finding came from simulating a modest improvement in Company Pride. This metric, which measures an employee's emotional connection to the brand and belief in the company's mission, predicted a massive 11.2% decrease in expected leavers. This impact is more than double the effect of focusing solely on Progression and Financial Wellbeing. The data confirms that employees who feel a deep, intrinsic connection to the purpose and narrative of the organisation are statistically more resilient to external market factors and thus significantly 'stickier'.

Strategic Conclusion for the Next 6 Months

The predictive data provides a clear mandate: for organisations seeking the highest immediate return on investment in retention over the next six months, Connection beats Compensation.

An investment in the Employer Brand and Internal Narrative, reminding people of the purpose and mission, is predicted to have an impact 2.5 times higher than equivalent efforts focused solely on tweaking progression pathways or pay structures. While financial and career health should never be ignored, the data strongly suggests that the most effective strategy for mitigating flight risk in the short term is to cultivate and strengthen the emotional and ideological connection employees have with the company.


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