Brexit - What Now Following Last Night’s Historic Defeat?

Theresa May’s Brexit deal was voted down by the House of Commons last night by historic proportions. The margin of defeat - 230 votes – means that negotiating a few tweaks with the EU then returning to Parliament no longer looks like a tenable option. The REC’s work over the coming weeks and months will focus on helping members prepare for different Brexit scenarios.

REC response to the defeat of the Government’s EU withdrawal deal

What’s next on the political front? Theresa May has to set out a new plan by Monday so she will have to decide quickly on which path to follow.

What are her options? If the UK is going to leave the EU by 29 March, she seems to only have two options: she comes to an agreement with Labour or leave without a deal and trade on WTO terms.

Given the numbers in the Commons, if a deal is to pass before 29 March, it will probably require the support of Labour’s frontbench. 

Assuming that Labour’s no-confidence vote in the Government is voted down, what each party does next is crucial. Current Labour policy, agreed at their party conference in September, is that all options would remain on the table “including campaigning for a public vote.” However, at the same conference, Jeremy Corbyn indicated that Labour would support a deal that included “a customs union and no hard border in Ireland” as well as protection of people’s jobs, workers’ rights and environmental and consumer standards.

With Theresa May saying that she is open for discussion – is agreement between the two largest parties likely?

I would suggest not and it has not started well. Nothing in their behaviour suggests that they would be open to compromise. Despite not holding a majority in the Commons, May has consistently been unwilling to reach out to opposition parties in any meaningful way. Additionally, staying in “the” or “a” Customs Union would be a very unwelcome proposition for a huge swathe of Conservative MPs (not to mention some cabinet members). While Corbyn clearly does not want to tarnish Labour with the Brexit brush.

With no deal option being of such concern to so many Ministers, MPs, businesses, and members of the public, an extension of the Article 50 deadline now looks like a distinct possibility. This would create some breathing-space, although the latest the UK could hope to extend the deadline to is July 2019, when the new EU Parliament opens. This would be a tight timeframe to hold another referendum.

With the political situation remaining so uncertain, what can recruiters do? An important first step is to look beyond the parliamentary shenanigans to evaluate the practical implications of each of these potential outcomes

• May’s deal (with limited changes)
• No Deal/WTO rules
• No Brexit
• 'Norway Plus' or “Common Market 2.0”
• Labour’s alternative
• A Canada Deal

What support is available to REC Members?

Evaluating each of these scenarios and how recruitment businesses can prepare for the outcomes is high on REC's agenda to support our members leading up to and post-Brexit.

As part of our wider Brexit support offering for members in 2019, we will be holding a series of interactive members-only webinars and regional workshops specifically looking at preparing your businesses for the potential outcome of Brexit. Our first Brexit webinar in the series will take place on 31 January from 1pm to 1:45pm and will be hosted by our Director of Policy & Campaigns Tom Hadley. To join, please register here.